WORLDTECHBernstein trims Coinbase target, lifts Circle estimates on shifting crypto revenue
Bernstein has reduced its earnings forecast and price target for Coinbase while raising its outlook for Robinhood and Circle, according to reports from Crypto Briefing and The Block. The changes point to a shift in where crypto companies generate revenue rather than a verdict on any single firm.
Ratings hold while estimates diverge
In a fresh report published ahead of third-quarter earnings, Bernstein kept its Outperform rating on Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD) and Circle (CRCL). Beneath those unchanged ratings, the underlying figures moved in different directions.
For Coinbase, the brokerage cut both its earnings forecast and its price target. For Robinhood it raised revenue estimates, and for Circle it raised earnings estimates.
Revenue moving beyond spot trading
According to Bernstein, plain spot crypto trading is no longer the main engine of growth. Derivatives, prediction markets and tokenization, the representation of an asset as a tradable entry on a blockchain, are accounting for a larger share of earnings.
The report indicates that softer spot trading volumes are being counterbalanced by expansion in derivatives and prediction markets. Robinhood has pushed into prediction markets through an integration with Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform, and Bernstein notes that its prediction market revenue now exceeds certain lines of its crypto trading business.
Circle outlook linked to stablecoin position
Bernstein raised its earnings outlook for Circle, the USDC issuer, tying the improved view to the company's position in the stablecoin sector and to growth in USDC supply.
Open questions
- Will Coinbase's third-quarter results confirm the lower estimates?
- Can Robinhood's prediction market revenue keep growing if spot trading stays weak?