WORLDTECHTesla and SpaceX have no announced merger, despite prediction-market odds
Neither Tesla nor SpaceX has announced a merger, though a prediction market tracked by Kalshi has put the odds of one by March 2027 at 36%, according to a report by Crypto Briefing. Elon Musk, who leads both companies, has not publicly confirmed any such plans.
Market odds rise without any filing
A prediction market monitored by Kalshi currently assigns a 36% probability to Tesla and SpaceX combining by March 2027. The market's assessment reflects a rise in how likely participants consider the outcome, even though neither company has made a formal merger announcement.
The report draws a clear line between the two: the market figure measures expectations, not corporate decisions.
Two independent companies, two large valuations
Tesla, an automotive and solar company based in Palo Alto, and SpaceX, a space company based in Hawthorne, continue to run as separate businesses. The report puts SpaceX at roughly $2 trillion and Tesla at about $1.5 trillion.
Those valuations and the separate operations are why the report describes any combination as speculative for now.
Open questions
- Will either company make a formal announcement about a merger?
- What would Musk say about the market's assessment, if anything?