Coinbase Institutional says Fed rate expectations, not the Binance hack, sank Bitcoin

What happened

The inflation print that moved the market The pivot point was the Consumer Price Index report released on November 10. Create a free account Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s commentary added to the adjustment, as futures markets digested both the data and the policy signals. Binance is a cryptocurrency exchange and finance company based in United Arab Emirates.

Bitcoin's sensitivity to Fed rate expectations highlights its growing correlation with macroeconomic factors, overshadowing isolated industry events. Coinbase Institutional says the evidence points somewhere else. Coinbase is a Bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange company based in San Francisco.

According to Coinbase Institutional, shifting expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy, not the breach at the world’s best-known exchange, drove Bitcoin’s latest decline. Headline consumer prices climbed 0.4% month-over-month, while core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3%.

Those numbers ran hot enough to reshape bets on what the Fed does next. Market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate increase in December climbed above 90% following the report.

The CME FedWatch tool showed roughly an 88% to 92% probability of that quarter-point hike. Odds of a larger move stayed substantially lower.

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